$9,900: Genius or Idiot?

A PSA 10 Full Art Charizard EX closed at 0.94x its own matched-comp median, and that discount is the only part of the buy that scores well.

Someone paid $9,900 for a 2016 Japanese XY Promo #276 Full Art Charizard EX in a PSA 10 holder, $650 under the median of 15 matched sales of the same card in the same grade.

Why it matters

A buy at or under the matched median is the one thing this column treats as evidence of a good fill rather than an opinion about one. That is what carries the score here, and very little else does.

By the numbers

• 0.94x — the $9,900 fill against a $10,550 matched-comp median, computed from 15 matched sales of the same card and grade.
• 1.14x — the interquartile spread of that pool, tight enough to quote a median from. The full range runs $8,800 to $12,000.
• 8 bids — genuine competition, but a long way short of the contested auctions behind this column’s stronger verdicts.

The intrigue

comp deviation 36 of 40 is the heaviest component in the model and it is close to maxed out. A $650 discount on a card whose middle 50% sits between $10,000.99 and $11,400 is not rounding noise, and at 15 matched sales the median is not resting on one row. liquidity 9 of 15 says a seller has somewhere to go.

Reality check

The market is softening under this buyer. trend 5 of 15 comes from the 6 most recent sales in the pool clearing -5.2% below the full-window median, so today’s discount can become tomorrow’s going rate. price discovery 10 of 15 on 8 bids, and scarcity 4 of 15 — no serial numbering and no autograph, so the grade is doing all of that work. The total is 64 of 100 and the verdict is FAIR BUY, not a steal.

What's next

Watch whether the next PSA 10 copy of this card clears above or below $10,550. If the -5.2% drift holds, this fill stops reading as a discount and starts reading as the market. No cap was applied to the verdict. For comparison, yesterday’s verdict ran on a far deeper pool.

How we track this

This verdict rests on one number: the median of 15 completed eBay sales of the same card in the same grade, pulled as a separate query and filtered to remove the sale itself, multi-card lots, reprints, altered slabs and Best Offer prices, which are asking figures rather than paid ones. Prices are final sold prices. RazMania holds no population report, no sell-through data and no card-level search volume for this card, so none of those inputs is in the score. eBay reports sold date, not sold time.