$7,200: Genius or Idiot?

A 2010 Triumphant Gengar in PSA 9 cleared $7,200 on 9 bids — 1.62x the $4,450 median of 17 matched sales of the same card and grade.

A PSA 9 copy of the 2010 Pokemon HS Triumphant #94 Gengar Holo sold at auction on October 11 for $7,200 on 9 bids. Against 17 matched sales of the same card and grade, the median is $4,450 — a $2,750 premium.

Why it matters

The price and the comparable market disagree, and the pool is deep enough to say so. Whether 1.62x reads as momentum or as a bad fill is the question, and the components answer in both directions at once.

By the numbers

• $7,200 — paid at auction on 9 bids, a confirmed price rather than an accepted best offer.
• $4,450 — median of 17 matched sales of the same card and grade, spanning $3,700 to $7,999 at an interquartile spread of 1.29.
• +32.6% — the last 30 days against the full comp window, computed on 7 recent sales.

The intrigue

The market set this price, not one person: 9 bidders competed. And $7,200 is not an outlier against what this card has already done — the matched pool’s own maximum is $7,999, so the fill sits inside the range rather than above it. On a pool up 32.6% over its last 30 days, paying near the top of that range is a bet the range moves.

Reality check

The case against is the larger number. At $7,200 the buyer paid above the pool’s 75th percentile of $5,500 — a $2,750 premium on a $4,450 baseline. Comp deviation is the heaviest-weighted input in the score and this sale earns 14 of 40 on it, the weakest component here. The 32.6% trend doing the work for the buyer rests on 7 recent sales.

What's next

The score is 48 of 100 and the verdict is FAIR BUY, uncapped. Comp deviation 14 of 40, trend 15 of 15, liquidity 9 of 15, price discovery 10 of 15, scarcity 0 of 15. The verdict is carried by momentum and bidding heat, not by the price paid — strip the trend out and the same sale sits in the bottom band. Watch whether the 30-day strength holds. Three inputs are absent and we will not invent them: no population report, no sell-through, no card-level search volume.

More in RazMania sports collectibles, and our October 9 edition read a Gyarados on the same rising-pool pattern.

Between the lines

The biggest sale we tracked on October 11 was a 1951 Bowman Mickey Mantle rookie in PSA 8 (OC) at $189,999, and this column did not lead on it. None of the 105 candidates priced above this one could be scored: 73 returned too few matched sales to quote a median, 13 were current-season product, 6 had print runs too short to assemble a pool, 3 gave pools spanning different cards, 3 built no specific enough query, and 7 were already covered here or by the sister column. 19 were rejected free, before a comparable was pulled. This browse is a sample, so every count here is a floor.

How we track this

RazMania screens completed eBay sales daily, dropping multi-card lots, reprints, altered cards and accepted best offers so only confirmed single-card prices enter the data. The verdict comes from a separate, narrower pull: 17 sales of the same card in the same grade, unsigned, with the lead sale excluded from its own baseline. We request a 90-day comparable window and do not claim to have received one, so no window length is asserted here. Pools too thin, or spanning more than one card, are refused rather than quoted — which is why this column skips days. eBay reports sold date, not sold time.