$9,205: Genius or Idiot?

A PSA 10 Mickey drew 43 bids in an open auction and still closed $447.45 under its own matched median.

A PSA 10 copy of the 2022 Disney Lorcana D23 Expo #1 Mickey Mouse — Brave Little Tailor sold for $9,205.10 on Friday, after 43 bids in an open auction. Measured against 10 matched sales of the same card in the same grade, that is $447.45 below the median.

Why it matters

An open auction is the only price signal here that isn’t one seller’s opinion. Forty-three bidders competing and still landing under the matched median is the cleanest evidence a buy was fair — and it is scarce, because most of Friday’s biggest sales could not be tested against comps at all.

By the numbers

• $9,652.55 — the matched-comp median across 10 PSA 10 sales of the same card over the trailing 90 days.
• 0.95x — what the buyer paid against that median, or $447.45 under it.
• $7,600 to $12,000 — the full spread of those 10 comps, a 1.25 interquartile ratio.

The intrigue

The buy takes 36 of a possible 40 on comp deviation, the model’s heaviest term, because paying under a matched median is the definition of a good entry. Price discovery is maxed at 15 of 15: this was a live auction settled by 43 bids, not a fixed price one buyer accepted on one seller’s terms. On those two components alone, the purchase reads as disciplined.

Reality check

The same pool argues the other way. The card’s 30-day median sits 6.8% below its 90-day median, so the buyer stepped in while the price was drifting down — 5 points of a possible 15 on trend. Liquidity takes 6 of 15: 10 comparable sales in 90 days is a thin exit, and only 3 landed in the last 30 days, a slim base for the trend read. The pool clears our floor of 8 by two sales. Treat the median as weakly supported.

What's next

Total: 66 of 100 — FAIR BUY. Components: comp deviation 36, price discovery 15, liquidity 6, trend 5, scarcity 4. No verdict cap was applied. Watch whether the 30-day drift holds: more sales down at the $8,000 lower quartile would move this from fair to expensive without the card itself changing. The score carries no pop report, no sell-through and no card-level search volume, because we do not have that data and will not estimate it.

Between the lines

This was not Friday’s biggest sale. That was a PSA 10 2010 Rayquaza Holo Promo at $49,900, absent from this column because no defensible comp pool could be built for it. 37 candidates priced above this one were skipped for the same reason — print runs too small to have traded 8 times in 90 days, products too new to have a 90-day history, or pools that mixed different cards together. The Mickey’s own sale was removed from its comp pool before the median was calculated. Friday cleared 250 confirmed single-card sales worth $1,558,396.54 at a $4,000 median — the same session from the Jordan side, archived in Sports Collectibles.

How we track this

RazMania monitors completed eBay sales daily, filtering out multi-card lots, reprints, and cross-listed items to isolate genuine single-card sales. Prices are final sold prices. Comparable-sale medians are calculated from 10 verified sales over the trailing 90 days. eBay reports sold date, not sold time.