$17,099: Genius or Idiot?

Fifty-six bidders landed $197 from the median. The harder question is how much that median is worth knowing.

A PSA 10 copy of the Japanese Poncho-Wearing Pikachu Mega Charizard Y promo, card 208/XY-P, sold on eBay for $17,099 on Aug. 9 after 56 bids. The 90-day median for the same card in the same grade is $16,902.

Why it matters

The buyer paid $197 over the median — about one percent. Fifty-six bidders arrived at a number that close to fair value, which is usually the sign of a market that knows itself.

By the numbers

• $16,902 — median of 8 PSA 10 sales of the same card, trailing 90 days.
• 1.01x — what the buyer paid against it, a premium of $197.
• $14,400 to $20,000 — the 25th-to-75th percentile band, which is $5,600 wide.

The intrigue

The genius case is the auction itself. 56 bids is the most competition this column has scored, and the price still landed inside one percent of the median. When that many people independently agree, the number is not one buyer’s mistake. The card also sits well inside its own range, with $20,300 already printed in the same window, so the buyer did not set a record or chase a top.

Reality check

The idiot case is that the median here is a thinner number than it looks. Eight sales in 90 days is the fewest this column will score, and the pool runs from $4,654 to $20,300. The interquartile band alone is $5,600 wide, so “fair value” on this card is a range you could drive a truck through, not a price. A buyer who waited for the 25th percentile pays $14,400 — $2,700 less — and on a card that trades this rarely, waiting could mean months.

What's next

• RazMania Buy Score: 61/100 — comp deviation 30/40, price discovery 15/15, trend 9/15, scarcity 4/15, liquidity 3/15.
• Verdict: FAIR BUY. Paying the median is fair by definition, and 56 bids confirm the room agreed. Liquidity scored near the floor: at 8 sales a quarter, getting back out is the real risk here, not the price.
• Watch the sale count, not the price. If this card produces fewer than 8 sales in the next 90 days, we will not be able to score it at all.

Between the lines

This took some finding. The day’s biggest confirmed sale was a PSA 10 Rayquaza ex Black Star promo at $120,000, and 31 sales above $17,099 outranked this card. We skipped every one — most returned one or two comparable sales, and one returned none. That is the deepest this column has ever had to walk. We also dropped 178 higher listings as Best Offer Accepted, where eBay publishes the asking price rather than what was paid. Our score has no population data, no sell-through and no search volume, because we do not have them.

How we track this

RazMania monitors completed eBay sales daily, filtering out multi-card lots, reprints, and cross-listed items to isolate genuine single-card sales. Prices are final sold prices. Comparable-sale medians are calculated from 8 verified sales over the trailing 90 days. eBay reports sold date, not sold time.