$15,600: Genius or Idiot?

The buyer paid $1,100 under the 90-day median. The market had already fallen further than that.

A PSA 10 copy of the 2019 Pokémon Sun & Moon Team Up full-art Latias & Latios GX, card #170, sold on eBay for $15,600 on Aug. 6 after 36 bids. The 90-day median for the same card in the same grade is $16,700.

Why it matters

On paper this is a $1,100 discount. But the card has been falling: the trailing 30-day median sits 6.6% below the 90-day figure, which puts it right around $15,600. The buyer did not get a discount. They paid today’s price to the dollar.

By the numbers

• $16,700 — median of 22 PSA 10 sales of the same card, trailing 90 days.
• 0.93x — what the buyer paid against it, $1,100 under.
• -6.6% — the last 30 days against the full 90-day median, across 9 sales.

The intrigue

The genius case is that nothing here is guesswork. 22 comps with an interquartile spread of 1.13x is the tightest pool this column has scored — the market on this card is not in dispute. The buyer bought under the median in a 36-bid auction, meaning a room agreed on the number and nobody pushed it higher. That is about as clean a fill as a five-figure card allows.

Reality check

The idiot case is the direction. This sale landed exactly on the 25th percentile of the 90-day pool, which sounds like the bottom until you notice the pool is sliding. Nine recent sales dragged the 30-day median down 6.6%, and buying at the current level in a market moving that way is not a discount, it is a moving target. Anyone treating $15,600 as a floor is reading a chart that has pointed down for a month.

What's next

• RazMania Buy Score: 69/100 — comp deviation 36/40, price discovery 15/15, liquidity 9/15, trend 5/15, scarcity 4/15.
• Verdict: FAIR BUY, one point off the GENIUS band. Buying under the median earned nearly full marks; the falling 30-day trend is what kept it out.
• Watch whether the 30-day median stabilizes. At 22 sales a quarter this card prices itself quickly. If the next few clear $16,000, the decline was noise and this was a good fill.

Between the lines

The day’s biggest confirmed sale was not this one. A 2017 Patrick Mahomes National Treasures rookie holo silver patch auto sold for $149,999.99, and 24 other sales above $15,600 outranked this card. We skipped every one — the Mahomes returned a single comparable sale in 90 days, and most of the rest returned one or two. One nearly ran anyway: a 2025 Mega Charizard SIR in a BGS Black Label at $38,601 came back with 16 comps and a 10x overpay, until we found the pool was ordinary BGS 10s rather than Black Labels. It is now correctly scored as uncomparable. Our score also excludes population data, sell-through and search volume, because we do not have them.

How we track this

RazMania monitors completed eBay sales daily, filtering out multi-card lots, reprints, and cross-listed items to isolate genuine single-card sales. Prices are final sold prices. Comparable-sale medians are calculated from 22 verified sales over the trailing 90 days. eBay reports sold date, not sold time.