LeBron’s Comp Says +77%. It Fell Again Last Week.

The PSA 9 Topps Chrome #111 printed lower in both weeks since its July 20 peak, and the PSA 10 has not traded enough to price since.

The trailing 30-day comp on a PSA 9 2003-04 Topps Chrome #111 LeBron James rookie reads 76.6% above the prior 60 days. Its weekly median has gone $6,374, $6,000, $5,575 since July 20. Both numbers are correct. Only one of them tells you what the card is worth today.

Why it matters

A 30-day median is a rolling average, so it keeps the July peak in the number for another two weeks after the peak is gone. Right now that gap is not academic. A buyer working from the comp is being quoted a market that stopped existing three weeks ago, and the error runs entirely against them.

By the numbers

• -12.5% — where the PSA 9 sits against its July 20 peak week.
• 6, 9, 12 — sales behind each of the last three weekly medians. The sample got deeper as the price fell, and last week’s reading revised down from $5,688 to $5,575 as the remaining sales landed.
• 2 of 6 — tracked LeBron identities that currently carry a reading we will quote a level from. The rest are either thinly sampled or stale.

Zoom in

The PSA 10 has gone quiet. Its last qualifying week was the week of July 20, which closed 15 days ago, and it printed $17,080. That is not a card holding its value, it is a card that has stopped changing hands. When the top grade stops trading while the grade below it falls 12.5%, the read is that sellers at the top have not accepted the new number yet.

Reality check

• The level is still high. Every one of the 6 tracked identities is up over 30 days, by a median of 59.7%. This is a pullback from a spike, not a collapse.
• Two weeks is a direction, not a floor, and sold data cannot separate profit-taking from supply arriving after a spike.
• A PSA 9 Bowman #123 shows 21.4% off its high, but its peak week rests on 4 sales. We do not quote off-peak moves unless both ends carry 5 or more, so we are not calling that one.

What's next

Watch whether the PSA 10 prints at all this week. If it comes back near $17,080 while the PSA 9 keeps sliding, the spring run was a mid-grade story and the top never really participated. If it comes back lower, the pullback has reached the part of the market that moves slowest. We measure it again tomorrow.

How we track this

RazMania monitors completed eBay sales daily, filtering out multi-card lots, reprints, and cross-listed items to isolate genuine single-card sales. Prices are final sold prices. Comparable-sale medians are calculated from 250 verified sales over the trailing 90 days. eBay reports sold date, not sold time.